数量经济与金融系列讲座第288期:Causal Links between Financial Activity and Economic Productivity...

Abstract：Before the global financial crisis (GFC), many economists adhered to a consensus that financial activity was a solid strategy to promote growth. The policy implications were that financial development should be promoted and restrictions on financial activity be lifted. The GFC challenged this view, as those countries that had the most vibrant financial markets tended to be most affected by the general downturn. The finance-growth nexus now appears less benign − at times rather hindering than fostering overall economic performance. It is thus in order to re-assess the earlier pro-finance findings. To this end, we consider the possible links between financial activity and economic performance as depending on the institutional environment. Based on a large panel of countries with observations on proxies for financial sector activity, real performance and a wide range of institutions, extending from 1970 to 2013, this paper investigates in how far the institutional context in which a financial system operates, determines the nature of the finance-growth nexus. So far, the literature has considered the inherited legal tradition, the colonial past, the overall sophistication of the financial sector’s clients as well as the rule of law as conditional variables, but from a rather narrow perspective. This paper follows a comprehensive approach in addressing the potential interactions of these institutions. Moreover, it extends the perspective to two largely neglected institutional features; (1) the predominant type of dwelling (renting or home-owning), which to some degree explains the financial depth (indebtedness) of an economy, and (2) the country’s attitude towards finance as a means of tax evasion and money laundering (banking secrecy, anonymity of investors, status of international financial center), which too contributes to explaining the range of activity and size of a country’s financial system. This will deepen our understanding of the importance of institutions in the finance-growth nexus.